Regional Dynamics in Afghanistan: Unraveling the Roles of India, Pakistan, and China and Charting a Path Ahead

Abstract

The abrupt withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in August 2021 led to a swift collapse of the Afghan government and the Taliban's resurgence, exacerbating existing governance and humanitarian crises. This paper examines the involvement of Pakistan, China, and India in post-US withdrawal Afghanistan, analyzing their approaches, motivations, and the implications for regional security and politics. Through a qualitative analysis, the study explores the historical, cultural, economic, and strategic factors shaping the countries' engagement with Afghanistan. Pakistan's complex relationship with the Taliban, China's preference for multilateral diplomacy, and India's security concerns and efforts to counter Pakistan's influence are investigated. The paper employs a rational choice model to understand the decision-making processes of these states, highlighting areas of overlap, cooperation, and competition in Afghanistan, such as security, economic interests, regional influence, and strategic positioning. Despite some limited cooperation, historical baggage, domestic politics, and regional rivalries hinder deeper collaboration. The paper concludes with recommendations for Pakistan to enhance its role in Afghanistan, including adopting a multilateral approach, facilitating the international socialization of the Taliban, engaging constructively with the Afghan government, collaborating with regional powers, engaging with India on shared interests, promoting economic development, and addressing domestic security challenges.

Keywords. Afghanistan, Pakistan, Security, Politics, Challenges